Action Forex
Blog
WTI oil staying near-term bearish, anticipating delayed OPEC+ decisions
In the current oil market, stability reigns as prices stay in the near-term range, with all eyes on the impending delayed OPEC+ meeting scheduled for Thursday. There's growing consensus, as per news reports in the past two days, that a compromise on 2024 output levels is within reach. However, it seems the most probable outcome will just be continuation...
GBPJPY Wave Analysis
GBPJPY broke pivotal resistance level 188.00
Likely to rise to resistance level 190.00.
GBPJPY recently broke the pivotal resistance level 188.00 (which stopped the previous intermediate impulse wave (1) in the middle of this month).
The breakout of the resistance level 188.00 accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (3) of the higher order primary impulse sequence 5 from the start...
Silver Wave Analysis
Silver rising inside intermediate impulse wave (3)
Likely to test resistance level 25.00
Silver recently broke the key resistance level 23.50 (which has been reversing the price from September, as can be seen below).
The breakout of the resistance level 23.50 accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (3), which then broke the weekly down channel from May.
Given the prevailing risk...
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast
EUR/USD: Day of Thanksgiving and Week of Contradictions
Reminder that the American currency came under significant pressure on November 14 following the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report in the USA. In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased from 0.4% to 0% (m/m), and on an annual basis, it dropped from 3.7% to 3.2%. The Core CPI...
Dollar’s Weak Streak Continues, Sterling and Antipodean Currencies Shine
Dollar ended as the weakest performer last week, with it poor performance aligning with broader rally in both stock and commodity markets, underpinned by growing investor sentiment favoring US economic soft-landing. Furthermore, minutes from FOMC meeting suggested a potential softening of Fed's hawkish stance. As risk-on sentiment seems poised to continue in the near term, potentially until the next...
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook
EUR/USD edged higher to 1.0964 last week, but failed to sustain above 61.8% retracement of 1.1274 to 1.0447 at 1.0958 and retreated. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Further rally is in favor as long as 1.0823 support holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.1274 to 1.0447 at 1.0958 will resume the rise from 1.0447 to retest...
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook
USD/JPY rebounded strongly after initial dive to 147.14 last week. But upside is capped by 55 4H EMA (now at 149.59). Initial bias remains neutral this week first, with risk on the downside. Break of 148.57 minor support will turn bias to the downside the resume the fall from 151.89 through 147.14 support. However sustained break of 55 4H...
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook
GBP/USD's rise from 1.2036 continued last week and hit as high as 1.2613. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 61.8% retracement of 1.3141 to 1.2036 at 1.2716 next. On the downside, below 1.2523 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3141 are...
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook
USD/CHF lost much downside momentum last week as seen in 4H MACD, but failed to stage a notable recovery. Further decline is expected this week as long as 0.8873 minor resistance holds. Current fall from 0.9243 should target 100% projection of 0.9243 to 0.8886 from 0.9111 at 0.8754 next. Nevertheless, break of 0.8873 will turn bias to the upside...
AUD/USD Weekly Report
AUD/USD retreated after surging to 0.6588 last week. But late breach of this resistance indicates that recent rally is resuming. Initial bias is back on the upside this week. Current rise from 0.6269 should target falling channel resistance (now at 0.6670) next. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.6520 support holds, in case of retreat.
In the...
USD/CAD Weekly Outlook
USD/CAD's decline from 1.3897 resumed last week and dipped to as low as 1.3592. For now, strong support is still expected from 38.2% retracement of 1.3091 to 1.3897 at 1.3589 to contain downside and bring rebound. Break of 1.3711 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.3897. However, sustained break of 1.3589 will indicate that...
GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook
GBP/JPY's up trend resumed last week by breaking through 188.26. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 61.8% projection of 180.74 to 188.26 from 184.44 at 189.08 first. Break will target 100% projection at 191.96 next. On the downside, below 187.08 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations, before staging another rally.
In the bigger...
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook
EUR/JPY's retreat from 164.29 finished at 161.22 and recovered since then. Initial bias stays mildly on the upside this week for retesting 164.29 first. Firm break there will resume larger up trend. On the downside, however, break of 162.42 minor support will turn bias back to the downside, to extend the corrective pattern from 164.29 with another falling leg.
In...
EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook
EUR/GBP's extended fall last week indicates short term topping at 0.8764, on bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. Initial bias is now on the downside this week for 0.8648 support. Decisive break there will argue that whole rise from 0.8491 has completed and turn near term outlook bearish. Nevertheless, break of 0.8724 minor resistance will retain near term bullishness...
EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook
EUR/AUD's fall from 1.6844 extended lower last week and the development argues that rebound from 1.6449 has completed already. Further decline is now expected this week as long as 1.6694 resistance holds. Firm break of 1.6449 support will argue that the pattern from 1.6319 has completed at 1.6844 as a corrective move, and fall from 1.7062 is ready to...
EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook
EUR/CHF failed to break through 0.9691 resistance last week and retreated. But it then recovered after brief dip to 0.9617. Initial bias stays neutral this week for more consolidations. Further rally is still expected and decisive break of 0.9691 resistance will carry larger bullish implication, and target 0.9840 resistance next. However, break of 0.9595 support will indicate short term...
The Weekly Bottom Line: Looking for Signs of Slowing
U.S. Highlights
Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting reinforced the Fed’s messaging that patience is warranted while the disinflation process is working.
Existing home sales sag as high prices and financing costs make homes their least affordable since the mid-80s.
All eyes will be on next week’s personal income and spending report for October, watching for...
Q3 to Mark Second Consecutive Pullback in Real GDP as Unemployment Ticks Higher
Canadian GDP likely edged lower in Q3 – we expect at a -0.5% (annualized) decline that would be slightly softer than the preliminary -0.1% estimate from Statistics Canada a month ago. Preliminary GDP estimates are highly revision prone, and domestic demand has shown more signs of softening in Q3 with both business and consumer spending slowing. And that small...
Summary 11/27 – 12/1
Monday, Nov 27, 2023
Tuesday, Nov 28, 2023
Wednesday, Nov 29, 2023
Thursday, Nov 30, 2023
Friday, Dec 1, 2023